The U.S. vacation rental market is entering 2026 cautiously on paper, but the data suggests operators are quietly pricing for a stronger finish.

According to the Q1 2026 U.S. Key Data Index, published by global short-term rental analytics company Key Data, early demand indicators remain soft, with on-the-books paid occupancy pacing 6 percent lower year over year in January and 5 percent lower in February. Despite this weak early outlook, pricing power is strengthening and forward-looking revenue indicators are stabilizing, signaling a market that has adapted to delayed booking behavior rather than being undermined by it.

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